Africa v. Anjouan

The African Union is a strange organization. Initially modeled after the European Union, the AU seems to have morphed from its early economic framework into mainly a military enterprise. Its latest operation, a puzzling foray into inter-island relations in the Comoros, is historic (though little noted) and terribly misguided.

My level of respect for the organization was already low (due to my Sudan-centric viewpoint), but my doubts seem confirmed by this latest show of AU force in the Comoros.

The Comoros Union (formerly the Islamic Federal Republic of the Comoros) is a little-known multi-island country in the Indian Ocean, located between northern Mozambique and the northern tip of Madagascar. The archipelago is composed of four main islands, though one (Mayotte) was never fully relinquished by the French after the three other main islands voted for independence in 1975.

There have been more than 20 coups d'etat in the Comoros since independence. The country has three official languages (Comorian, Arabic, and French), and is home to myriad ethnic groups, including Arabs, Africans, Persians, Indonesians, Malaysians, and even Polynesians. Situated in the Mozambique Channel, an historic trade route for many products, the Comoros islands are ancient melting pots. The islands are home to less than a million people, but the country has one of the highest population densities in Africa.

Today, the Comoros are bracing for war. One of the main islands, Anjouan, declared its independence from the Comoros in 1997, though its independence was never recognized by any foreign power or the Comoros itself. In 2002, the islands were tentatively reunified in an agreement that mandated an elected President for each of the three main islands, in addition to a federal president.

The first elected president of Anjouan was Mohamed Bacar, who had come to power in 2001. His term expired in April 2007, after which elections were planned (power officially transferred to the president of the island's assembly in the interim). However, citing "irregularities and intimidation," the federal Comoros government, with the backing of the AU, mandated the postponement of Anjouan's elections. Bacar printed his own ballots, set up polling stations, and held elections anyway. He declared victory with 90% of the vote. A few weeks later, in July 2007, he again declared Anjouan's independence from the Comoros.

Now the Comoros Union's federal government has brought in AU forces to supplement their meager army (of some 1000 soldiers). Tanzania, Senegal, Libya, and Sudan have sent troops, while press reports indicate US support for the coming joint-Comorian/AU operation to take back Anjouan.

Bacar, the leader of Anjouan, says he is willing to negotiate, and that he seeks only more autonomy for his island, not independence.

The AU is hoping for an easy victory against an easy target to offset criticism of its ineffectiveness in Sudan and Somalia. Among others, South African President Thabo Mbeki is adamantly opposed to the move.

It seems strange to me that the AU, which is witness to and even victim of Sudanese aggression in Darfur, would allow Sudanese participation in an offensive war against Anjouan. This is the first AU military invasion of a member state. The stated goal is to restore democracy, but the AU instrument of war includes contingents from two highly undemocratic countries, Libya and Sudan.

The federal President, Ahmed Sambi, claims that Bacar's hold on power is illegitimate because the federal constitutional court deemed last year's Anjouan elections illegal. But Bacar claims that Sambi, his arch rival, packed the court with allies who would never side with him over the federal President.

So now the Comoros Union and the African Union are ganging up on Anjouan, with French and US support, and for what? To tie together three islands that have shown throughout their history that they don't want or need to be tied to each other? To take power from an elected government and hand it to an occupying force? Or simply to raise the prestige of a struggling trans-national African organization?

Whatever the answer, something is fishy in the Comoros. The AU is discrediting itself, Sudan gets to play the hero, and the US and France are nowhere to be found.

What ever happened to diplomacy?

[Here's a South African news story about the situation. Here's the latest from AFP. And here's the Wikipedia article on Anjouan.]